We will add the Black Friday and Cyber Monday results here after December 1, 2026.
KritDeals records the price of every product it tracks, every time the price changes. Before the Black Friday 2026 sales start, we looked at 5,100 of those products to answer one question: how many "deals" are real? These are our own numbers, from our own price history, and we explain how we got them at the end.
Key findings
- 28% of products got more expensive in the 30 days before Black Friday. Between October 8 and November 7, 2026, 28.3% of the products we track went up in price, and only 16.6% went down. The rest didn't move.
- The typical rise was 17.7%. Among the products that went up, the median increase was 17.7%. A "25% off" sale on one of them may only bring it back to where it was in early October.
- 48% of Amazon's crossed-out prices were never charged. On 1,086 of 2,274 Amazon products we track (47.8%), the crossed-out reference price was more than 1% higher than the highest price we ever recorded for that product.
- 1 in 5 products is already at its lowest price. 19.7% of tracked products sat at their lowest recorded price on November 7, before any Black Friday sale began.
- 28.3% went up
- 16.6% went down
- 55.1% no change
5,100 tracked products, October 8 to November 7, 2026. Median rise among those that went up: 17.7%.
- 47.8% higher than any price we recorded
- 52.2% at or below a price we recorded
1,086 of 2,274 Amazon products carrying a list or "was" price.
- 19.7% at their lowest
- 80.3% above their lowest
5,100 tracked products on November 7, 2026, before any Black Friday sale began.
Source: KritDeals price history, as of November 7, 2026. Free to cite with a link to this page.
Prices went up before the sales
| October 8 to November 7, 2026 | Share of 5,100 products |
|---|---|
| Price went up | 28.3% |
| Price went down | 16.6% |
| No change | 55.1% |
| Median rise, among products that went up | 17.7% |
Prices go up and down all year, so a rise in October isn't proof of a trick. But it changes how to read a Black Friday discount. A product that rose 18% in October and then drops 15% on Black Friday is about where it started. The discount is measured from the higher price, not from the price you could have paid a month earlier.
The crossed-out price is often a price nobody paid
A sale price is usually shown next to a higher crossed-out price. On Amazon that reference price is often a list price or a "typical" price. For 47.8% of the Amazon products we track that carry one, it was more than 1% above every price we recorded for the product. In other words, during our tracking the product never sold at the price it is being compared with.
Our tracking for these products runs a median of 73 days, starting from June 2026, so a product may have sold at its list price before we began. That is why we only count a gap of more than 1%, and why the useful comparison is the product's own price history, not the crossed-out number.
What this means for your Black Friday shopping
- Compare against the price history, not the "was" price. Paste a product link into Price Check to see the prices we have recorded, the lowest one and a buy-or-wait verdict.
- Check whether it rose first. If the price went up in October, a Black Friday "deal" may only undo the increase.
- Some products are already at their low. One in five tracked products is at its lowest recorded price today. If something you want is one of them, waiting may not get you a better price. This week's verified price drops lists products that just hit a new low.
- Use our Black Friday hub. The Black Friday hub shows only deals at their lowest tracked price, from November 20 to 29.
For more on reading price history, see how to spot a fake sale using price history and our comparison of the best price tracker apps.
How we did it
- The data: KritDeals' own price records. We record a new price point each time a product's price changes, for the products we pull from retailer feeds (mostly Amazon, plus eBay and other US stores). We began tracking these products on June 26, 2026.
- Which products count: 5,100 products with at least three recorded price changes and at least 30 days of history as of November 7, 2026. Products with too little history are left out, so a first sighting can't count as a low.
- Price on a date: the last price we recorded on or before that date.
- Went up or down: the price on November 7 compared with the price on October 8. A change of less than 0.5% counts as no change.
- Crossed-out price never charged: the product's current reference price (list or "was" price) is more than 1% above the highest price we recorded. This covers the 2,274 Amazon products that carry a reference price and meet the history rule above.
- At its lowest: the price on November 7 is at or below every price we recorded for the product.
Our history covers only the products we track, for as long as we have tracked them. It is a snapshot of these products, not of every product sold online. You are welcome to cite these numbers. Please credit KritDeals and link to this page.
FAQ
Are Black Friday deals real? Some are and some aren't. Before Black Friday 2026, 28% of the products KritDeals tracks went up in price in the previous 30 days, and nearly half of the Amazon products we track showed a crossed-out price we never saw them sell for. Check each product's price history before you buy.
Do retailers raise prices before Black Friday? In our data, more products went up than down in the month before Black Friday 2026: 28.3% rose and 16.6% fell between October 8 and November 7. The median rise was 17.7%.
How can I tell if a Black Friday price is the lowest? Compare it with the product's own price history. Paste the link into KritDeals Price Check to see the lowest price we have recorded and whether today's price beats it.
Is it better to buy before Black Friday? Sometimes. One in five products we track was already at its lowest recorded price on November 7, 2026. If the price you see matches the item's past low, waiting may not save you more.
Will you update this after Black Friday? Yes. After Cyber Monday we will add how many Black Friday to Cyber Monday prices beat, matched or missed each product's lowest price from before November.
